When to Buy McDonald’s After Earnings Slip
McDonald’s (MCD) was lower Tuesday, falling 3.1% to $203.43 after a disappointing earnings report.
The stock has been under pressure since hitting its 52-week high in early August. Valuation concerns continue to weigh on investors as McDonald’s searches for growth.
Earnings of $2.11 a share missed analysts’ expectations by 10 cents, while revenue of $5.43 billion grew 1.1% year over year but missed estimates by $40 million. That said, global comp-store sales were up 5.9%, beating estimates of 5.5% growth.
Business is going well for McDonald’s but investors were looking for a catalyst to bid the stock higher. Even though global comps came in strong, a top- and bottom-line miss isn’t the momentum booster that bulls needed.
Let’s look at the charts while we’re at it.
Trading McDonald’s Stock
McDonald’s topped out at $221.93 in early August. A decline of 10% would land the stock at $199.73. Round it up to a whole number and psychologically important mark and we get $200.
Just above that mark now, MCD stock doesn’t have far to go to get there. But it’s more than just a ~10% decline.
At $200.64 we have the 61.8% retracement for the one-year range. Just below, at roughly $199, we have the 200-day moving average. Near current levels we also have channel support (blue line), although McDonald’s stock has overshot this mark before.
Further, landing MCD stock at $200 per share puts the dividend yield at an even 2.5%.
There’s plenty of reasons to want to buy McDonald’s at $200. The question now becomes, can McDonald’s stock fall there and will $200 act as support should the stock get to this mark?
Just over $3 per share from the $200 level now, MCD stock can most definitely fall to this point. It could get there by lunch if bulls start to throw in the towel. Whether it holds is a more difficult question.
At the very least, it’s a solid risk/reward mark. Below the 200-day moving average and investors can always stop out of their long position. If investors are in it for the long haul, perhaps $200 represents a reasonable level to nibble the stock. If they’re only traders, they will want to limit their risk should the 200-day moving average fail as support.
Below the 200-day and the 50% retracement comes into play near $194. Below that and the 38.2% retracement rests down near $187.50.
On the upside, see if MCD stock can reclaim the 78.6% retracement at $210 and the 100-day moving average. The latter was prior support but is now acting as current resistance. Over this area could propel shares back toward its highs.